Are prior cash close and official futures settlement necessarily the same?
Reveal the worked answer
No.
Their instruments, times and calculation methods can differ.
Equity Index Futures · FUT-26 · Core
Build the overnight map
Which references belong on the chart?
What you will learn and prerequisites
- Explain the mechanism in the lesson question.
- Reproduce the worked comparison and recognize its failure case.
Read first: What is an equity index future?
An overnight map should tell a short, reproducible story. It needs a small set of well-labeled references rather than many ambiguous lines. Each reference requires an instrument, window, timestamp and definition.
Known facts and estimated positioning should remain visually and conceptually distinct.
Understand the mechanism
Prior cash close, official futures settlement, overnight extremes and regional analysis windows answer different questions. VWAP and volume POC require their own data definitions. Dealer levels add modeling assumptions rather than more raw facts.
Developing references change; completed-session references should remain fixed.
Walk through the process
Set a cutoff and include only information available then. Mark fixed and developing values separately. Write continuation and rejection branches around the relevant boundaries.
Do not reuse an unlabeled line merely because it appears to align with the current price.
Operational boundary
All figures are fictional teaching inputs, not current quotes or margin schedules. Product rules, broker requirements and usable liquidity remain separate from the model example. A planned exit and an algebraic hedge are not execution guarantees.
A worked example
The fictional map contains cash close 5,000, futures settlement 5,015, Asian range 5,008–5,022, European range 5,018–5,035 and current future 5,030. This shows a higher overnight auction near Europe's upper area.
It does not tell whether the cash open will accept it. The graph orders the observations while the lesson preserves the separate definitions.
Build the overnight map—worked comparison
Vertical: Price or index level
Horizontal: Reference sequence described in the example
1. Fictional example
Read the graph as a data table
| Reference sequence described in the example | Fictional example |
|---|---|
| 1 | 5,000 |
| 2 | 5,015 |
| 3 | 5,008 |
| 4 | 5,022 |
| 5 | 5,018 |
| 6 | 5,035 |
| 7 | 5,030 |
What would invalidate the reading?
Combining cash close with futures settlement or including later data makes the map misleading. More lines can create false confluence rather than more evidence.
Check your understanding
Try the question before revealing its answer. These are reading checks, not trading certification or a site completion record.
What is the critical failure to avoid?
Reveal the worked answer
Combining cash close with futures settlement or including later data makes the map misleading. More lines can create false confluence rather than more evidence.
Explain this risk before treating the example as a decision rule. A correct calculation does not guarantee a favorable market outcome.
Return to the question: Which references belong on the chart? State the observed facts, the assumptions and the failure condition separately.
Sources, assumptions and downloadable script
External references support definitions and conventions. Worked scenarios and prose are original. No current quotes or dealer inventory are claimed.
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